Knockout Stages
Simulated progression probabilities for every team through the tournament bracket.
#1
Spain
Group H
Rating: 217125%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
80%
2nd Place
18%
3rd Place
2%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
97%
Round of 16
79%
Quarter Finals
65%
Semi Finals
44%
Final
34%
#2
Argentina
Group J
Rating: 211313%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
77%
2nd Place
17%
3rd Place
5%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
94%
Round of 16
66%
Quarter Finals
47%
Semi Finals
26%
Final
19%
#3
France
Group I
Rating: 206211%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
59%
2nd Place
29%
3rd Place
11%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
87%
Round of 16
65%
Quarter Finals
45%
Semi Finals
33%
Final
22%
#4
England
Group L
Rating: 204211%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
58%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
10%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
88%
Round of 16
74%
Quarter Finals
48%
Semi Finals
36%
Final
21%
#5
Mexico
Group A
Rating: 19355%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
66%
2nd Place
25%
3rd Place
7%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
91%
Round of 16
77%
Quarter Finals
51%
Semi Finals
25%
Final
12%
#6
Brazil
Group C
Rating: 19785%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
56%
2nd Place
27%
3rd Place
13%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
83%
Round of 16
68%
Quarter Finals
36%
Semi Finals
22%
Final
11%
#7
Colombia
Group K
Rating: 19984%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
48%
2nd Place
36%
3rd Place
14%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
84%
Round of 16
67%
Quarter Finals
34%
Semi Finals
17%
Final
8%
#8
Portugal
Group K
Rating: 19763%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
42%
2nd Place
38%
3rd Place
16%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
80%
Round of 16
62%
Quarter Finals
30%
Semi Finals
14%
Final
6%
#9
Netherlands
Group F
Rating: 19593%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
56%
2nd Place
32%
3rd Place
10%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
87%
Round of 16
51%
Quarter Finals
27%
Semi Finals
16%
Final
7%
#10
Ecuador
Group E
Rating: 19333%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
49%
2nd Place
37%
3rd Place
12%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
85%
Round of 16
64%
Quarter Finals
35%
Semi Finals
19%
Final
7%
#11
Croatia
Group L
Rating: 19333%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
33%
2nd Place
41%
3rd Place
21%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
74%
Round of 16
51%
Quarter Finals
27%
Semi Finals
16%
Final
7%
#12
Germany
Group E
Rating: 19102%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
44%
2nd Place
38%
3rd Place
14%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
82%
Round of 16
59%
Quarter Finals
31%
Semi Finals
16%
Final
5%
#13
Norway
Group I
Rating: 19222%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
28%
2nd Place
39%
3rd Place
27%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
67%
Round of 16
40%
Quarter Finals
20%
Semi Finals
13%
Final
6%
#14
Canada
Group B
Rating: 19022%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
51%
2nd Place
39%
3rd Place
8%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
90%
Round of 16
73%
Quarter Finals
29%
Semi Finals
12%
Final
4%
#15
Switzerland
Group B
Rating: 18971%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
44%
2nd Place
43%
3rd Place
11%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
87%
Round of 16
68%
Quarter Finals
27%
Semi Finals
10%
Final
3%
#16
United States
Group D
Rating: 18471%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
39%
2nd Place
32%
3rd Place
22%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
71%
Round of 16
55%
Quarter Finals
33%
Semi Finals
12%
Final
5%
#17
Belgium
Group G
Rating: 18491%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
49%
2nd Place
28%
3rd Place
15%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
77%
Round of 16
59%
Quarter Finals
33%
Semi Finals
12%
Final
4%
#18
Japan
Group F
Rating: 18781%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
37%
2nd Place
42%
3rd Place
16%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
79%
Round of 16
36%
Quarter Finals
17%
Semi Finals
8%
Final
3%
#19
Paraguay
Group D
Rating: 18331%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
34%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
26%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
64%
Round of 16
48%
Quarter Finals
28%
Semi Finals
10%
Final
3%
#20
Uruguay
Group H
Rating: 18901%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
18%
2nd Place
60%
3rd Place
18%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
77%
Round of 16
30%
Quarter Finals
14%
Semi Finals
4%
Final
2%
#21
Morocco
Group C
Rating: 1816<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
23%
2nd Place
33%
3rd Place
30%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
56%
Round of 16
33%
Quarter Finals
11%
Semi Finals
5%
Final
1%
#22
South Korea
Group A
Rating: 1784<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
27%
2nd Place
46%
3rd Place
20%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
73%
Round of 16
42%
Quarter Finals
19%
Semi Finals
6%
Final
1%
#23
Australia
Group D
Rating: 1774<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
24%
2nd Place
30%
3rd Place
32%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
53%
Round of 16
36%
Quarter Finals
18%
Semi Finals
5%
Final
1%
#24
Senegal
Group I
Rating: 1803<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
12%
2nd Place
28%
3rd Place
45%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
40%
Round of 16
19%
Quarter Finals
7%
Semi Finals
3%
Final
1%
#25
Iran
Group G
Rating: 1754<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
29%
2nd Place
32%
3rd Place
23%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
60%
Round of 16
37%
Quarter Finals
16%
Semi Finals
4%
Final
1%
#26
Scotland
Group C
Rating: 1790<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
18%
2nd Place
31%
3rd Place
34%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
50%
Round of 16
27%
Quarter Finals
8%
Semi Finals
3%
Final
1%
#27
Austria
Group J
Rating: 1818<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
14%
2nd Place
42%
3rd Place
27%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
56%
Round of 16
14%
Quarter Finals
6%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#28
Panama
Group L
Rating: 1742<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
9%
2nd Place
23%
3rd Place
48%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
32%
Round of 16
14%
Quarter Finals
4%
Semi Finals
2%
Final
<1%
#29
Uzbekistan
Group K
Rating: 1735<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
9%
2nd Place
22%
3rd Place
48%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
30%
Round of 16
13%
Quarter Finals
3%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#30
Egypt
Group G
Rating: 1631<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
13%
2nd Place
22%
3rd Place
32%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
35%
Round of 16
16%
Quarter Finals
5%
Semi Finals
1%
Final
<1%
#31
Algeria
Group J
Rating: 1703<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
6%
2nd Place
25%
3rd Place
37%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
31%
Round of 16
5%
Quarter Finals
2%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#32
Ivory Coast
Group E
Rating: 1607<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
5%
2nd Place
16%
3rd Place
44%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
21%
Round of 16
6%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#33
New Zealand
Group G
Rating: 1586<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
9%
2nd Place
18%
3rd Place
30%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
27%
Round of 16
10%
Quarter Finals
3%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#34
Tunisia
Group F
Rating: 1612<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
5%
2nd Place
17%
3rd Place
43%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
22%
Round of 16
3%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#35
Playoff Winner 4
Group D
Rating: 1509<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
3%
2nd Place
8%
3rd Place
21%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
12%
Round of 16
4%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#36
Haiti
Group C
Rating: 1542<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
3%
2nd Place
8%
3rd Place
22%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
11%
Round of 16
3%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#37
Jordan
Group J
Rating: 1626<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
3%
2nd Place
16%
3rd Place
32%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
19%
Round of 16
2%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#38
South Africa
Group A
Rating: 1530<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
4%
2nd Place
15%
3rd Place
38%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
19%
Round of 16
5%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#39
Saudi Arabia
Group H
Rating: 1607<1%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
15%
3rd Place
46%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
17%
Round of 16
2%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#40
Cabo Verde
Group H
Rating: 15090%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
1%
2nd Place
8%
3rd Place
34%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
8%
Round of 16
1%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
0%
#41
Curacao
Group E
Rating: 15090%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
9%
3rd Place
30%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
11%
Round of 16
2%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#42
Ghana
Group L
Rating: 15090%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
1%
2nd Place
5%
3rd Place
21%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
6%
Round of 16
1%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#43
Playoff Winner 1
Group A
Rating: 15090%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
3%
2nd Place
14%
3rd Place
35%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
18%
Round of 16
4%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#44
Playoff Winner 2
Group B
Rating: 15090%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
3%
2nd Place
12%
3rd Place
44%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
14%
Round of 16
4%
Quarter Finals
1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#45
Playoff Winner 3
Group I
Rating: 15090%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
1%
2nd Place
5%
3rd Place
17%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
6%
Round of 16
1%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#46
Playoff Winner 5
Group F
Rating: 15090%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
9%
3rd Place
30%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
12%
Round of 16
1%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#47
Playoff Winner 6
Group K
Rating: 15090%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
1%
2nd Place
5%
3rd Place
22%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
6%
Round of 16
1%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
#48
Qatar
Group B
Rating: 14560%Win
Group Stage
1st Place
2%
2nd Place
7%
3rd Place
37%
Knockout Stage
Round of 32
9%
Round of 16
2%
Quarter Finals
<1%
Semi Finals
<1%
Final
<1%
| # | Flag | Team | Group | Rating | 4th | 3th | 2nd | 1st | Round of 32 | Round of 16 | Quarter | Semi | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | H | 2171 | 0% | 2% | 18% | 80% | 97% | 79% | 65% | 44% | 34% | 25% | |
| 2 | Argentina | J | 2113 | 1% | 5% | 17% | 77% | 94% | 66% | 47% | 26% | 19% | 13% | |
| 3 | France | I | 2062 | 2% | 11% | 29% | 59% | 87% | 65% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 11% | |
| 4 | England | L | 2042 | 2% | 10% | 30% | 58% | 88% | 74% | 48% | 36% | 21% | 11% | |
| 5 | Mexico | A | 1935 | 2% | 7% | 25% | 66% | 91% | 77% | 51% | 25% | 12% | 5% | |
| 6 | Brazil | C | 1978 | 4% | 13% | 27% | 56% | 83% | 68% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | |
| 7 | Colombia | K | 1998 | 3% | 14% | 36% | 48% | 84% | 67% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 4% | |
| 8 | Portugal | K | 1976 | 4% | 16% | 38% | 42% | 80% | 62% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 3% | |
| 9 | Netherlands | F | 1959 | 2% | 10% | 32% | 56% | 87% | 51% | 27% | 16% | 7% | 3% | |
| 10 | Ecuador | E | 1933 | 3% | 12% | 37% | 49% | 85% | 64% | 35% | 19% | 7% | 3% | |
| 11 | Croatia | L | 1933 | 5% | 21% | 41% | 33% | 74% | 51% | 27% | 16% | 7% | 3% | |
| 12 | Germany | E | 1910 | 4% | 14% | 38% | 44% | 82% | 59% | 31% | 16% | 5% | 2% | |
| 13 | Norway | I | 1922 | 6% | 27% | 39% | 28% | 67% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 6% | 2% | |
| 14 | Canada | B | 1902 | 2% | 8% | 39% | 51% | 90% | 73% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 2% | |
| 15 | Switzerland | B | 1897 | 2% | 11% | 43% | 44% | 87% | 68% | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | |
| 16 | United States | D | 1847 | 8% | 22% | 32% | 39% | 71% | 55% | 33% | 12% | 5% | 1% | |
| 17 | Belgium | G | 1849 | 8% | 15% | 28% | 49% | 77% | 59% | 33% | 12% | 4% | 1% | |
| 18 | Japan | F | 1878 | 5% | 16% | 42% | 37% | 79% | 36% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | |
| 19 | Paraguay | D | 1833 | 10% | 26% | 30% | 34% | 64% | 48% | 28% | 10% | 3% | 1% | |
| 20 | Uruguay | H | 1890 | 5% | 18% | 60% | 18% | 77% | 30% | 14% | 4% | 2% | 1% | |
| 21 | Morocco | C | 1816 | 14% | 30% | 33% | 23% | 56% | 33% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | |
| 22 | South Korea | A | 1784 | 8% | 20% | 46% | 27% | 73% | 42% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | |
| 23 | Australia | D | 1774 | 15% | 32% | 30% | 24% | 53% | 36% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | |
| 24 | Senegal | I | 1803 | 15% | 45% | 28% | 12% | 40% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | |
| 25 | Iran | G | 1754 | 16% | 23% | 32% | 29% | 60% | 37% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | |
| 26 | Scotland | C | 1790 | 16% | 34% | 31% | 18% | 50% | 27% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | |
| 27 | Austria | J | 1818 | 17% | 27% | 42% | 14% | 56% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | Panama | L | 1742 | 20% | 48% | 23% | 9% | 32% | 14% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | Uzbekistan | K | 1735 | 21% | 48% | 22% | 9% | 30% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | Egypt | G | 1631 | 33% | 32% | 22% | 13% | 35% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | Algeria | J | 1703 | 32% | 37% | 25% | 6% | 31% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | Ivory Coast | E | 1607 | 34% | 44% | 16% | 5% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | New Zealand | G | 1586 | 43% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 27% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | Tunisia | F | 1612 | 34% | 43% | 17% | 5% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | Playoff Winner 4 | D | 1509 | 68% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | Haiti | C | 1542 | 66% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | Jordan | J | 1626 | 49% | 32% | 16% | 3% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | South Africa | A | 1530 | 43% | 38% | 15% | 4% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | Saudi Arabia | H | 1607 | 37% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | Cabo Verde | H | 1509 | 58% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | Curacao | E | 1509 | 59% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | Ghana | L | 1509 | 72% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | Playoff Winner 1 | A | 1509 | 48% | 35% | 14% | 3% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | Playoff Winner 2 | B | 1509 | 41% | 44% | 12% | 3% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | Playoff Winner 3 | I | 1509 | 77% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | Playoff Winner 5 | F | 1509 | 58% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | Playoff Winner 6 | K | 1509 | 72% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | Qatar | B | 1456 | 55% | 37% | 7% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |