World Cup forecast

World Cup 2026

See how the tournament could unfold.

Explore match predictions, group standings, knockout probabilities, and the most likely final based on Elo ratings and thousands of simulations.

Final forecast

Spain

vs France

Most likely final matchup in the current forecast at 7%.

Scheduled matches

104

Groups mapped

12

Teams profiled

48

Most likely champion

Spain

Tournament favorites

The race for the trophy is tight at the top.

These teams currently have the best chance of winning the World Cup.

01

Spain

Group H · Elo 2171

25%
02

Argentina

Group J · Elo 2113

12%
03

France

Group I · Elo 2062

11%

How it works

Built on ratings, simulations, and matchup probabilities.

Elo base

Team ratings reflect recent form, opponent quality, and longer-term performance.

Thousands of runs

The tournament is simulated repeatedly to estimate realistic paths and outcomes.

Final probabilities

Late-round and final projections stay visible so you can track the title race clearly.

Start exploring

Jump into the knockout stage and compare the teams most likely to make a deep run.

Explore knockout stages